The Challenge Ahead

For the first time in known history, the human race must act in unison. The impacts of climate change affect us all. The solution also lies with every one of us. To avoid catastrophe we must act together. The magnitude of the cooperation required and the extent of the work to be done collide to make this the single biggest issue facing humanity. Climate change is a huge wake up call for the human species. For generations we have mindlessly and selfishly plundered the earth’s natural resources. We have now just begun the steep learning curve towards the recognition that we can’t control, nor do we have the right to control, the colossal energy and nutrient cycles of the planet. We cannot solve this problem with the same thinking that got us into it. Failure in changing our ways will quite possibly be the beginning of the demise of the human species and the thirty million or more other species with which we share this earth. This issue is far beyond, in time and space, any single one of us. It is far beyond any one government, any one electoral cycle, any one organisation or any one corporation. But the gifted few who are alive today have a unique opportunity to fundamentally change direction. After a few short years it is likely that the inertia of the climate system will take the impacts of climate change far beyond the control of the human species. But fate is a false concept. Together, and only together, can we change our path and avoid catastrophe. These are the reasons that I devote my life to helping solve this crisis.

Stop Coal Mining Now

Coal mining must stop. Contributing less than 1% of GDP, coal mining in Australia is an industry we can addord to lose. In fact, we can ill-afford to NOT drop coal mining. The impacts of global warming are being felt across the country already, and it’s only the beginning. The unsustainable practices of creating moonscapes out of landscapes, destroying entire ecosystems and knowingly fuelling the single largest source of global greenhouse emissions (coal-fired power plants) simply must end, and end soon. If the federal and state governments are serious about climate change they would get serious about phasing out coal mining, starting by winding back the subsidies and tax-breaks to polluting industries.

Hunter Valley Coal Mining

(photo courtesy Lee Rhiannon MLC)

Kevin Kracks the Kyoto Drought

Australia’s ratification of the Kyoto protocol as the first official duty of our new Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, has brought renewed optimism for millions of Australians that the Howard decade did not damage our future beyond repair. Kevin’07 got up, but will Kevin’08 finally say a genuine sorry for the past injustices to indigenous Australians? Will his Kyoto ratification result in real emission cuts in line with scientific recommendations? Will he manage to pull our education and health systems out of the hole John Howard dug? Will he move Australia off its dependence on fossil fuels and infinite growth strategy towards a technology-based and sustainability-focussed economy? We’ll just have to wait and see I suppose, but the early signs are encouraging.

Greenhouse Gases Cause Interest Rate Rises

The federal government has blamed the interest rate rise on 7th November, just 17 days from the federal election on the drought. Yet this same government would strongly deny that there is any significant connection between the environment and the economy. Given recent findings that at least 50% of the effects of the drought in south-western Australia are due to human-induced climate change (Cai, 2006), does it not follow that greenhouse gas emissions are perhaps responsible for at least 0.125% of the 0.25% rate rise? This government’s extreme right-wing economic agenda has finally come back to bite them. And as voters take to the polls to elect a new Prime Minister on 24th November, John Howard might be realising that Nicholas Stern was right about the economic impacts of altering the earth’s climate system.

Scientists Scoff at Emissions Trading Scheme

Scientists from around the world have been unimpressed by the lack of action by the Australian government on climate change. At Greenhouse 2007 held in Sydney on October 2nd-5th, 2007, delegates from the international climate science and policy community heard about the proposed Australian Emissions Trading Scheme first hand from PM representative Stephen Bygrave. One of the world’s leading climate change experts, Professor Stephen Schneider, delivered inspirational comments comparing the weak and lacklustre policies of the Australian government to the strong initiatives of the US state of California.

A particular highlight was when author and scientist Professor Tim Flannery asked the PM’s representative Stephen Bygrave about the scientific basis of the emissions trading scheme (if any) and why his graph didn’t include numbers on its axes; see the figure below.

Bygrave was left fumbling for excuses. His ‘aspirational targets’ didn’t really warm the hearts of the hundreds of scientists who understand very clearly the urgency of the issue and the need for strong and binding emissions targets. As someone who clearly didn’t grasp the magnitude of the problem, Bygrave was really the odd one out. It was easy to detect a strong sense of scepticism about the aspirational (a.k.a. “meaningless”) targets of the proposed scheme. Carbon trading expert Warwick McKibbin told the conference that a Reserve-Bank-style authority was needed to de-politicise decisions about carbon trading market mechanisms and that an emissions trading scheme could be up and running by the end of 2008, much sooner than the PM’s proposed 2012 inception.

The latest projections by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meterology were released, indicating high probabilities of 3°C warming over much of Australia by 2070 for the high-CO2 emissions scenarios. Extremes such as the number of hot days and warm nights are projected to increase and the frequency of frosts is projected to decrease. Drying of the continent is expected to increase siginificantly with projections of up to 30% less precipitation by 2070 in large areas of the country. The most severely effected regions are likely to be south and south-western parts of the country. Likely higher evapotranspiration rates and increased rainfall interception are likely to lead to significantly lower runoff in forested catchments in the drying regions, having possible severe consequences for water resource planning. Prof Wenju Cai warned about the non-linearities in the relationship between rainfall and runoff.

My Electric Bike

Finally, a mode of transport that could perhaps be the solution to commuting to work, reducing global greenhouse emissions, cutting our dependence on foreign oil, restoring our loss of urban amenity due to traffic noise and air pollution and reversing the looming health epidemic from obesity. All that and it’s available right now at a fraction of the price of a new car. With advances in battery technology and electric motors in recent years, the electric bike has become a force to be reckoned with. Powerful, clean, quiet and efficient, for less than $2000 an e-bike can get to to and from work without the need to pay for registration, insurance and fuel.

One full charge of my 48V system costs around 8-10 cents and takes me 35km, more than enough to get to and from work. An equivalent car trip would cost $2-3 in petrol and possibly as much again in running costs. But with the e-bike I get free parking at my destination and I can take the quiet and peaceful route through bushtracks, avoiding most of the noise, pollution and conjestion of the roads. What’s more, I charge up with 100% renewable electricity each night.

Comparing a typical car with my e-bike on my daily commute to work:

So given the benefits I have mentioned here it is hard to believe that cyclists are such a minority in my part of the world. The reason for this is the lack of safe and properly constructed cycleways that link parts of the city. Cycling is promoted on our city council’s website as a recreational activity but not as a real transport alternative. This has meant that cycleways are a destination and not a genuine transport corridor. Cycleways will continue to receive no state funding and remain few and far between as long as we view it as a recreational activity and not a genuine transport alternative. Advances in battery technology will help the image of cycling and in time more cycleways will facilitate this fast, efficient, clean, healthy transport option. Cycling to work will soon be a reality for everyone except the frail, elderly and obese on any day that the sun happens to be shining.

The Swindle Gets its Chance

The controversial documentary “The Great Global Warming Swindle” (GGWS) by Martin Durkin was aired on ABC Television in Australia on Thursday 12th July, 2007 but thanks to the ABC, both sides of the debate had their fair say. In the end, the swindle-followers looked like the real swindlers. The outcome of an open discussion by an expert panel made Durkin’s supporters look like the poor scientists that they are – misinformed and selective with a big chip on their shoulders and a desire to ignore any evidence that might refute their dubious claims. It gave Durkin’s followers plenty of time to try to prove their point. The debate quite rightly unveiled Durkin’s and the sceptic’s need to fraudulently fudge data in order to try to prove their theory.

The scientific world is rigorous and competitive and has built into it mechanisms to critically analyse and assess theories and claims. The simple fact is that the evidence of global warming and the possible drivers has been scrupulously agonised-over in refereed journal papers for decades. The scientific world has come to an understanding and this conclusion has such dire consequences for humanity that the whole issue has become a mainstream issue. This mainstreaming is good for action but bad for science because suddenly every Jo Blo is a self-confessed expert on the issue. That includes the few cranky old stick-insects that have a chip on their shoulder about past personal failures. The few sceptics left have the unscientific desire to go against the majority for the sake of seeking attention, not for the sake of any real evidence. They will go to extreme lengths to stay alive in the debate: no less than falsification of data and absolute scientific fraud.

After the debate, the science was the winner and now like never before the sceptics of this very real threat have had their dubious methods and theories exposed. The global warming debate just took another big step forward towards real action. Congratulations to the ABC on a fair and open discussion.

Photo courtesty of:   http://www.pdphoto.org 

 

Wild Weather Batters Newcastle and the Hunter

Waves measuring up to 17 metres, winds at over 125 km/h and widespread 6-hourly rainfall totals of over 250 mm were the symptoms of a likely global-warming exacerbated weather event that lashed Newcastle, the central coast and the Hunter Valley on Friday 8th June. The storms resulted in at least 9 deaths and hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Preliminary probabilistic studies have estimated the rainfall event as having an average recurrence interval (ARI) of 30 years but some (unnamed) hydrology researchers have said the flood event that followed was higher than that for an ARI 100 year level in some suburbs. Some local environmentalists are citing Karma as the reason a 225 metre coal ship was driven into the sand at Nobby’s Beach amid enormous swell and violent driving winds.

Extreme weather events such as this have certainly been a feature of the Earth’s climate a long time before humans industrialised the planet but there is widespread consensus in the scientific community that the observed warming of the atmosphere will lead to these kinds of extreme weather events becoming more common. There has been an upward trend globally in the severity and frequency of extreme events since human industrialisation.

Pasha Bulker coal ship stuck at Nobby’s Beach, Newcastle

Photo: unknown photographer

To see more photos of the ship and the floods go to:

http://www.abc.net.au/newcastle/stories/s1945881.htm

http://www.abc.net.au/newcastle/stories/2007_floods.htm

 

Save Anvil Hill

This Sunday 3rd June was the “Save Anvil Hill” protest, with over 500 people in attendance. Anvil Hill is a proposed coal mine, and a symbol of the ignorance and economic irresponsibility of the NSW state government to condemn future generations to a climate-changed world. The government has ignored countless protests of thousands of people and dodged a landmark ruling by the Land and Environment court that the mine’s proposal has not properly assessed the flow-on impacts of burning coal from the proposed mine. A giant human sign told the NSW government that it is not too late to “Save Anvil Hill”. The family family-friendly protest was supported by Greenpeace, The Greens, Climate Action Newcastle, Rising Tide, several other climate action groups and local residents. Read more about Anvil Hill at www.anvilhill.org.au. These strong actions will ensure that the mine will never go ahead and that a line in the sand has been drawn that ‘King Coal’ will never be allowed to cross.

 

The human sign with a simple but strong message

Photo Courtesy of Greenpeace

Anvil Hill

A future climate change catalyst?

Photo Courtesy of the Anvil Hill Alliance

Time to Switch

Climate Action Newcastle have today stepped up their campaign to encourage locals to sign up to GreenPower, the NSW government’s green electricity accreditation scheme. A recent survey revealed that 76% of local residents said they were willing to pay more for renewable energy, but less than 3% have signed up so far. “Time to Switch” seeks to transform the will of the community into action. Typically, the extra cost of 100% GreenPower can be offset by a few simple changes in energy efficiency around the home. For more information, email can<at>climateaction.org.au.

Click Here to view the “Time to Switch” Information Leaflet

To read the opinion piece from The Herald on Saturday 2nd June, click on the link below.

Opinion Piece in The Herald by Ben Henley